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Climate change in the South East Queensland Region

By | June 4, 2012 at 12:07 pm | No comments | Turf Articles

For your background information on “Climate Change” I have attached a copy of a recent report, “Climate Change in South East Queensland Region” for your reference.  I have summarised the projections below in table form.

YEAR

2030

2050

2070

Annual and Seasonal Temperature

+0.9 oC

1.1% To 1.8%

+1.5 oC to 2.9 oC

Annual and Seasonal Rainfall

-3%

-3% to -5%

-4% to -8%

Annual and Seasonal Potential Evaporation

+3-4% (some +6%)

+6% to +10%

+16% to +19%

Overview of climate projections

In summary, the ‘best estimate’ changes to temperature and rainfall under the three emissions scenarios are:

 2030 (medium emissions scenario)

  • Annual and seasonal temperature: annual mean temperature (the average of all daily temperatures within a given year) is projected to increase by 0.9 °C. There is little variation in projections across the seasons.
  • Annual and seasonal rainfall: annual rainfall (the total rainfall received within a given year) is projected to decrease by three per cent (-34 mm). The largest decrease of five per cent is projected for spring ( -11 mm) and winter (-7 mm).
  • Annual and seasonal potential evaporation: across all seasons the annual ‘best estimate’ increase is projected to be around 3−4 per cent (47−62 mm), with some models projecting up to a six per cent increase in autumn (20 mm) and winter (14 mm).

 2050 (low and high emissions scenarios)

  • Annual and seasonal temperature: annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C and 1.8 °C under the low and high emissions scenarios, respectively. There is little variation in projections across the seasons.
  • Annual and seasonal rainfall: annual rainfall is projected to decrease by three per cent (-34 mm) and five per cent (-57 mm) under the low and high emissions scenarios respectively. The largest seasonal decrease of 10 per cent (-15 mm) is projected for winter under the high emissions scenario.
  • Annual and seasonal potential evaporation: under a high emissions scenario an increase in annual potential evaporation of up to 10 per cent (155 mm) is projected with the best estimate being six per cent (93 mm). Autumn and winter are projected to have the greatest increases of up to 12 per cent (40 mm and 29 mm respectively).

 2070 (low and high emissions scenarios)

  • Annual and seasonal temperature: annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 °C and 2.9 °C under the low and high emissions scenarios respectively. There is little variation in projections across the seasons.
  • Annual and seasonal rainfall: annual rainfall is projected to decrease by four per cent (-45 mm) and eight per cent (-91 mm) under the low and high emissions scenarios respectively. The largest seasonal decrease under a high emissions scenario of 15 per cent is projected for spring (-34 mm) and winter (-22 mm).
  • Annual and seasonal potential evaporation: under a high emissions scenario, annual evaporation is projected to increase by as much as 16 per cent (248 mm). Autumn and winter are projected to be the seasons most impacted with increases up to 19 per cent (63 mm and 46 mm respectively) in some models.

 Temperature extremes

Global Climate Models indicate that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will increase the likelihood of record high temperatures in a given region. The Global Climate Models project a rise in extreme temperatures (CSIRO & BoM, 2007). Table 1 shows the projected number of days above 35 °C for three observation stations in the SEQ region with good historical records. Under a high emissions  scenario in 2070 for Amberley the number of hot days above 35 °C per year are projected to increase from 12 to 41 days and from one to six days in Brisbane. Under the same scenario for Tewantin, hot days above 35 °C are projected to increase from three to 11 days.

regionsummary-seq

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